China in 2022: Policies and Trends

Description:
2022 promises to be a challenging year for China. Beijing is pursuing a radical restructuring of China’s economy, one in which traditional drivers of growth – real estate and construction – are being pared back, and resources are being allocated to households in the name of boosting consumption under Common Prosperity. The changes are necessary and long overdue – and they will prove painful, particularly given that Beijing is committed to eschewing the sort of pump-priming stimulus that has been a crutch for the past decade.

Instead of stimulus, the focus will be on stability. But slowing economic activity means that stability will be far harder to achieve. The year ahead promises more defaults, deteriorating bank asset quality, and greater volatility as China’s domestic markets become increasingly sensitive to risk. That’s already complicating life for China’s central bank which is experimenting with a new blend of monetary policy tools to deal with a rapidly changing environment. Topics covered will include:

• Monetary policy is becoming more difficult as bank asset quality deteriorates and markets increasingly differentiate risk.
• Beijing will strive to deleverage the real estate system while minimizing defaults and economic knock-on effects.
• On the policy front, expect big things for Common Prosperity as Beijing tries to reinvigorate consumption by reallocating resources to households.

About the Speaker:

Dinny McMahon’s Bio:
Dinny McMahon is the author of “China’s Great Wall of Debt: Shadow Banks, Ghost Cities, Massive Loans, and the End of the Chinese Miracle”, a ground-up look at the mechanics of China’s political economy, which he wrote while a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars. He later moved to MacroPolo, the Paulson Institute’s think tank in Chicago, where he researched China’s efforts to clean up its financial system. Dinny started his career as a financial journalist in China, spending six years in Beijing with The Wall Street Journal, and four years with Dow Jones Newswires in Shanghai, where he also contributed to the Far Eastern Economic Review. Dinny McMahon currently produces macro-thematic research focused on China’s financial system aimed at helping investors and financial services professionals identify emerging trends. He is also working on a project for the Wilson Center on China’s efforts to decouple from the US dollar.

About the Moderator:

Britt Erica Tunick’s Bio:
Britt Erica Tunick is a senior consultant specializing in media relations, corporate positioning, content creation, and event planning. She is an award-winning journalist with more than 20 years of experience writing about the financial services industry for AR Magazine (Absolute Return & Alpha) KPMG’s M&A practice, Investment Dealers’ Digest Magazine. EO News, Euromoney Magazine, the Sunday Business, and the Financial Times. Britt holds a bachelor’s degree in English/Journalism from Pepperdine University and a master’s degree in Public Affairs. She is a member of 100 Women in Hedge Funds, the Society of American Business Editors & Writers, and is the president of the Junior League of Bergen County. Britt is the July 2010 recipient of the American Society of Business Publication Editors’ Northeast Region Silver Azbee award and received 1st and 3rd place editorial awards from Euromoney/Institutional Investor in 2009. In 2008 she was awarded the New York Financial Writers’ Association’s Emil Meier Award.