COVID-19 impact on US spending

Live view of consumer spending, based on credit and debit card usage across the United States, can help you keep a finger on the pulse of the economy. What is the magnitude of the current economic contraction? When is the economic turning point? At what speed and strength will the US economy recover?

How are the indices calculated? The combined spending shows the difference year-on-year (YoY) calculated daily (adjusted for day-of-week effects). The sector indices are aggregated per sector and show the difference year-on-year on a seven-day moving average window. The dotted vertical line indicates the onset for the change in consumer behaviour, observed to be around February 25th. Some sectors also include visitor data for businesses with physical locations, calculated in the same manner.

Why monitor consumer spending data? Live transaction data from credit and debit card usage is a way to get a very early indication of changes in consumer behaviour. Trends seen here will often be reflected in companies’ quarterly earnings reports, US census statistics and in GDP – but not until several weeks or months later.