Author: Steven Saywell, Advisor, LimeGlass – limeglass.com
Lower for Longer
“Not seeing the forest for the trees” is an especially pertinent phrase for investors trying to navigate specific market themes amid the reams of written research produced daily by the major investment banks. An innovative new approach can be available through the Limeglass use of AI and NLP. Let’s consider the important current investment theme of “Lower for Longer”. These words refer to major central banks keeping monetary conditions (read key policy rates) at record low levels for an extended time period.
In printed research, locating key research discussing and forecasting this theme would be difficult, unless the author specifically mentions “Lower for Longer” in the title. The effect: investors miss out on crucial information and opportunities. The solution is to tag the vocabulary associated with the theme even if embedded deep inside documents. Limeglass does this, even for paragraphs within seemingly unrelated pieces, perhaps even pertaining to a different asset class altogether.
Here are some examples of tagged themes that would also ideally be surfaced: inflation expectations, producer prices, labour costs and commodity prices. These are all important determinants of the underlying theme and each of these in turn requires identifying their own underlying concepts and associated phrases. In addition, unexpected related themes could include: Japanification, deflationary spiral, delayed demand and quantitative easing.
“Lower for Longer” will be written about for some time even if the approach itself actually turns out to be wrong or indeed wrong for a limited period but ultimately proves correct. The theme could reverse but the associated tag words will remain accurate and critical in seeking out important written investment ideas.